Fernhill Q4 Growth Dashboard

Where we stand

Three numbers that matter for the 2,600 goal

Active subscriptions

2,140

82% of the 2,600 goal · 460 to go by Dec 31

On the line — needs ~6 net adds/day orders-daily.csv (Oct 11) · brief.md (goal)

Blended Meta CAC · last 30 days

$46.75

$18,000 spend ÷ 385 subscriptions · target under $42

$4.75 (11%) over target meta-ads-last-30d.csv · brief.md (target)

Projected 90-day retention

77.8%

Month-3 average of the four 2026 cohorts (76/78/77/80) · target above 70%

Above target — if acquisition stays full-price cohort-retention.csv · brief.md (target)

Subscriptions

Active subscriptions, with the straight line to 2,600

The account plateaued around 2,200 through September — new subs and cancellations have been running at roughly even. The dashed line is what the goal asks for: 2,140 on Oct 11 to 2,600 on Dec 31, or about 6 net adds a day. The only real drop in the window is the Oct 7–8 billing blip, not attrition. orders-daily.csv · brief.md (2,600 by Dec 31)

Paid social

Meta CAC by campaign, day by day

The Roaster Morning Video is the only campaign that stays under the $42 line — it has, for the whole window. The two retargeting campaigns are running the same three creatives since Aug 11 (63 days old), and they are buying the most expensive subscriptions in the account. meta-ads-daily.csv (7-day rolling) · creatives.csv (launch dates) · meta-ads-last-30d.csv

Campaign (30 days, Sep 13–Oct 12)	Spend	Subscriptions	CAC	vs $42 target

Retention

Do they stay? Cohort curves by how they arrived

This is the whole Q4 argument in one chart. The discount cohorts (Nov–Dec '25) were down to 42.5% by month 3 — Maya saw it last year too: “half those subscribers churned by February.” Full-price and first-bag-on-us cohorts held 74–80%. Acquire with an offer, keep them at full price — “on us” language does not read like a deal, and the data agrees. cohort-retention.csv · call-2026-10-08.md (Maya)

Oct 5–11

What changed this week

The billing migration cost us a bump, not a leak.

The billing provider moved Oct 3 and the card-updater was not re-enabled. Of 114 cancellations in the Oct 5–11 week, 61 were expired-card payment failures — people who wanted to stay but got cancelled. Active subs fell from 2,202 to 2,135 on Oct 7–8 and have recovered to 2,140. Three customer emails from that window say the same thing: “I didn't even get a warning.” Re-enabling card-updater and a dunning email before first failure would have held most of those subs.
cancellation-reasons-oct5-11.csv · orders-daily.csv · customer-comments.csv (Oct 7–8)
The roaster-morning video is doing real work.

Both 9:16 videos launched Oct 1. The 22-second one (FH-V-014) is at 1.62% CTR with a 34.1% thumbstop and a $33.52 CAC — the cheapest subscriptions in the account, versus $55.10 for the flatlay. A customer told us on Instagram: “the 6am roaster video is the only ad I don't skip.” More of this, less flatlay.
creatives.csv · customer-comments.csv (Oct 9)
Retargeting is stale — exactly as Maya said on the call.

Both retargeting campaigns have run the same three creatives since Aug 11. They are now the most expensive subscriptions we buy: $60.56 for Site Visitors 30d and $45.31 for Cart Abandon, with frequency at 6.8 and 5.1. Fresh creative for these audiences is the fastest CAC win available.
meta-ads-last-30d.csv (frequency) · creatives.csv (launch dates) · call-2026-10-08.md
Gifts are climbing, and we have no follow-up running.

Gift orders ran 1–2 a day in July and are at 4–5 a day now, with customers telling us “gifted the box to my dad, now I want my own.” The gift-recipient follow-up flow exists in the platform but has sent 0 emails in 30 days. Maya called converted gift buyers gold — the flow to capture them is not live.
orders-daily.csv (gift_orders) · email-flows.csv · customer-comments.csv · call-2026-10-08.md

Provenance

Sources — every number on this page

orders-daily.csv — daily new/cancelled/active subscriptions, revenue, gift orders, Jul 13–Oct 11, 2026
orders-last-90d.csv — weekly rollup of the same totals (reconciliation check)
meta-ads-daily.csv — daily spend, impressions, clicks, subscriptions by campaign, Sep 13–Oct 12
meta-ads-last-30d.csv — 30-day campaign totals with CAC and frequency
cohort-retention.csv — monthly cohorts, % still subscribed by month, Nov 2025–Jun 2026
cancellation-reasons-oct5-11.csv — exit survey for the spike week
creatives.csv — 7 creatives with launch dates, CTR, thumbstop, CAC
email-flows.csv — flow-level sends and conversions, last 30 days
customer-comments.csv — verbatim customer quotes, Sep 21–Oct 9
brief.md — 2,600-sub goal, $42 CAC and 70% retention targets, Winter Reserve offer
call-2026-10-08.md — Maya's kickoff notes (churn history, gifting, creative preferences)
brand-kit/brand.json + brand-kit/logo.svg — colors, fonts, chart palette, mark

Three numbers that matter for the 2,600 goal

Active subscriptions, with the straight line to 2,600

Meta CAC by campaign, day by day

Do they stay? Cohort curves by how they arrived

What changed this week

The billing migration cost us a bump, not a leak.

The roaster-morning video is doing real work.

Retargeting is stale — exactly as Maya said on the call.

Gifts are climbing, and we have no follow-up running.

Sources — every number on this page